One match is on Sunday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Harriet Dart against Lilli Tagger in the final. Our calls: Tagger over Dart.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 69% Tagger · Market: -316 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Sunday brings the Guangzhou final: Harriet Dart against Lilli Tagger. Lilli Tagger has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Harriet Dart has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.3% versus 64% on first-serve points in Tagger's favor. Dart comes in off a compressed schedule; Tagger comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tagger.
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