5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Costa do Sauipe, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Filip Misolic against Juan Pablo Varillas in the round of 32. Our calls: Carabelli over Izquierdo, Comesana over Cecchinato, Angelo over Dias.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 60% Angelo · Market: -199 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Costa do Sauipe round of 32 pits Juan Carlos Prado Angelo against Pedro Boscardin Dias on clay. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is 5-5 across recent matches. Pedro Boscardin Dias has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Angelo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Carabelli
Win probability: 64% Carabelli · Market: -166 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo meet in the round of 32 at Costa do Sauipe on Tuesday. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Carabelli.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Filip Misolic goes up against Juan Pablo Varillas in the Costa do Sauipe round of 32. Filip Misolic has won 2 of the last 10. Juan Pablo Varillas limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 58% Comesana · Market: -214 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Costa do Sauipe round of 32 pits Francisco Comesana against Marco Cecchinato on clay. Francisco Comesana comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Marco Cecchinato has won 4 of the last 10.
Comesana's 71.4% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Cecchinato) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Comesana is exactly that — a lean.
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva and Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna meet in the round of 32 at Costa do Sauipe on Tuesday. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna is 5-5 across recent matches.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.