US Open · R64 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Frances Tiafoe vs. Rei Sakamoto — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Frances Tiafoe goes up against Rei Sakamoto in the US Open round of 64. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Rei Sakamoto has won 5 of the last 10.
Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 70%. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Sakamoto has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-229(69.6% Tiafoe)
Market-313(75.8% Tiafoe)
Sources: Market consensus (average across books). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Frances Tiafoe
1941
Rei Sakamoto
1711
Overall rating
Frances Tiafoe
2002
Rei Sakamoto
1710
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Frances Tiafoe
Rei Sakamoto
1st serve in
59.5%
62.7%
1st serve points won
72.4%
73.7%
2nd serve points won
52%
49.7%
Form
Frances Tiafoe
7–3
Rei Sakamoto
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Frances Tiafoe vs Rei Sakamoto?
Maiden gives Frances Tiafoe a 70% chance to beat Rei Sakamoto in the US Open round of 64 on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Frances Tiafoe pick?
70% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 70%, picks in that range have won 70% of the time (116 so far). See the track record page for the full table.