A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Frances Tiafoe goes up against Rei Sakamoto in the US Open round of 64. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Rei Sakamoto has won 5 of the last 10.

Frances Tiafoe is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tiafoe around 70%. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Sakamoto has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.