Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Novak Djokovic against Valentin Vacherot on clay. Novak Djokovic is 5-5 across recent matches. Valentin Vacherot is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Djokovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.