Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcats — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightTexas State Bobcats 66, Colorado State Rams 27
Our pick landed: Texas State Bobcats won 66-27. We had them at 76%.
Texas State Bobcats, 76% to win. We project them by 12.
The numbers
| Our pick | Texas State Bobcats |
| Chance they win | 76% |
| Our projected spread (Texas State Bobcats) | -12 |
| Our projected score (Texas State Bobcats first) | 40-28 |
| Projected total | 67.3 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Texas State Bobcats) | -14.5 |
| Total | 70 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Other picks on the Week 7, 2026 board
- East Carolina Pirates at UAB BlazersThu, Oct 15 · East Carolina Pirates, 72% to win
- Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksTue, Oct 13 · Jacksonville State Gamecocks, 61% to win
- Georgia State Panthers at James Madison DukesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green FalconsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black KnightsSat, Oct 17 · Army Black Knights, 74% to win
- Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State SpartansSat, Oct 17 · Northwestern Wildcats, 62% to win
- Virginia Cavaliers at SMU MustangsSat, Oct 17 · SMU Mustangs, 66% to win
- Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College EaglesSat, Oct 17 · Pittsburgh Panthers, 74% to win
Prediction published Oct 11, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Colorado State vs Texas State?
- Texas State Bobcats won 66-27. Maiden picked Texas State Bobcats at 76% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Colorado State vs Texas State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Texas State Bobcats hosting Colorado State Rams. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.