Maiden.bet

Newport Predictions & Picks — July 9, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 9, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share card

9 matches are on Thursday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal in the round of 32. Our calls: Lajal over Fearnley, Mannarino over Galarneau, Walton over Tomic, Minnen over Vidmanova, Michelsen over Jung, Collins over Volynets, and 3 more.

The boldest call on the card: Walton over Tomic — the market disagrees with us there.

Stefan Kozlov vs. Yibing Wu

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 58% on Stefan Kozlov, who won 6-4 2-6 6-4.

Pick: Kozlov

Win probability: 58% Kozlov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets

Stefan Kozlov and Yibing Wu meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Thursday. Stefan Kozlov has won 3 of the last 10. Yibing Wu has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Kozlov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kozlov is exactly that — a lean.

Jacob Fearnley vs. Mark Lajal

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 56% on Mark Lajal; Jacob Fearnley won 7-5 3-6 6-1.

Pick: Lajal

Win probability: 56% Lajal · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Thursday's Newport round of 32 pits Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal on grass. Mark Lajal is 7-3 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Fearnley's 70.3%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lajal is exactly that — a lean.

Danielle Collins vs. Katie Volynets

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Danielle Collins at 60% lost to Katie Volynets (6-3 6-4).

Pick: Collins

Win probability: 60% Collins · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Danielle Collins and Katie Volynets meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Danielle Collins limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Katie Volynets is 6-4 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Danielle Collins, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Katie Volynets.

Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 57% on first-serve points in Collins's favor. Collins comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Collins fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Arthur Gea vs. Tristan Schoolkate

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Arthur Gea was our 50% pick, and won 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 50% Gea · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Gea goes up against Tristan Schoolkate in the Newport round of 16. Arthur Gea is 3-7 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate has won 6 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Gea comes in off a compressed schedule; Schoolkate comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gea is exactly that — a lean.

Andre Ilagan vs. Liam Broady

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Liam Broady was our 53% pick, and won 6-3 7-6(2).

Pick: BroadyUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Ilagan the favorite; our numbers say Broady.

Win probability: 53% Broady · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Andre Ilagan against Liam Broady on grass. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Andre Ilagan comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Liam Broady leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Ilagan comes in off a compressed schedule; Broady comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Broady fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alex Michelsen vs. Jason Jung

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Alex Michelsen, who won 6-1 6-3.

Pick: Michelsen

Win probability: 55% Michelsen · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Alex Michelsen against Jason Jung on grass. Alex Michelsen comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jason Jung comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Michelsen has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Jung's 65%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule; Jung comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Michelsen is exactly that — a lean.

Adam Walton vs. Bernard Tomic

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Adam Walton at 54% before the match, and Adam Walton won 6-4 4-6 6-2.

Pick: WaltonUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Tomic the favorite; our numbers say Walton.

Win probability: 54% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Adam Walton against Bernard Tomic on grass. Adam Walton is 7-3 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Adrian Mannarino vs. Alexis Galarneau

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Adrian Mannarino at 56%, but Alexis Galarneau won 6-3 3-6 7-6(5).

Pick: Mannarino

Win probability: 56% Mannarino · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

Adrian Mannarino and Alexis Galarneau meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Adrian Mannarino has won 5 of the last 10. Alexis Galarneau has won 5 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Mannarino comes in off a compressed schedule; Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Mannarino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Darja Vidmanova vs. Greet Minnen

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Greet Minnen, who won 7-6(2) 4-6 6-1.

Pick: MinnenUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Vidmanova the favorite; our numbers say Minnen.

Win probability: 51% Minnen · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Darja Vidmanova and Greet Minnen meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Greet Minnen is 5-5 across recent matches. Darja Vidmanova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minnen fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks

Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.

Updated Jul 15, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.