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Newport Predictions & Picks — July 9, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 9, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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9 matches are on Thursday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal in the round of 32. Our calls: Lajal over Fearnley, Mannarino over Galarneau, Walton over Tomic, Minnen over Vidmanova, Michelsen over Jung, Collins over Volynets, and 3 more.

The boldest call on the card: Walton over Tomic — the market disagrees with us there.

Stefan Kozlov vs Yibing Wu

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 58% on Stefan Kozlov, who won 6-4 2-6 6-4.

Pick: Kozlov

Win probability: 58% Kozlov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets

Stefan Kozlov and Yibing Wu meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Thursday. Stefan Kozlov has won 3 of the last 10. Yibing Wu has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Kozlov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kozlov is exactly that — a lean.

Jacob Fearnley vs Mark Lajal

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 56% on Mark Lajal; Jacob Fearnley won 7-5 3-6 6-1.

Pick: Lajal

Win probability: 56% Lajal · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Thursday's Newport round of 32 pits Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal on grass. Mark Lajal is 7-3 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Fearnley's 70.3%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lajal is exactly that — a lean.

Danielle Collins vs Katie Volynets

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Danielle Collins at 60% lost to Katie Volynets (6-3 6-4).

Pick: Collins

Win probability: 60% Collins · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Danielle Collins and Katie Volynets meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Danielle Collins limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Katie Volynets is 6-4 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Danielle Collins, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Katie Volynets.

Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 57% on first-serve points in Collins's favor. Collins comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Collins fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Arthur Gea vs Tristan Schoolkate

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Arthur Gea was our 50% pick, and won 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 50% Gea · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Gea goes up against Tristan Schoolkate in the Newport round of 16. Arthur Gea is 3-7 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate has won 6 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Gea comes in off a compressed schedule; Schoolkate comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gea is exactly that — a lean.

Andre Ilagan vs Liam Broady

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Liam Broady was our 53% pick, and won 6-3 7-6(2).

Pick: BroadyUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Ilagan the favorite; our numbers say Broady.

Win probability: 53% Broady · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Andre Ilagan against Liam Broady on grass. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Andre Ilagan comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Liam Broady leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Ilagan comes in off a compressed schedule; Broady comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Broady fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alex Michelsen vs Jason Jung

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Alex Michelsen, who won 6-1 6-3.

Pick: Michelsen

Win probability: 55% Michelsen · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Alex Michelsen against Jason Jung on grass. Alex Michelsen comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jason Jung comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Michelsen has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Jung's 65%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule; Jung comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Michelsen is exactly that — a lean.

Adam Walton vs Bernard Tomic

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Adam Walton at 54% before the match, and Adam Walton won 6-4 4-6 6-2.

Pick: WaltonUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Tomic the favorite; our numbers say Walton.

Win probability: 54% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Adam Walton against Bernard Tomic on grass. Adam Walton is 7-3 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Adrian Mannarino vs Alexis Galarneau

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Adrian Mannarino at 56%, but Alexis Galarneau won 6-3 3-6 7-6(5).

Pick: Mannarino

Win probability: 56% Mannarino · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

Adrian Mannarino and Alexis Galarneau meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Adrian Mannarino has won 5 of the last 10. Alexis Galarneau has won 5 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Mannarino comes in off a compressed schedule; Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Mannarino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Darja Vidmanova vs Greet Minnen

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Greet Minnen, who won 7-6(2) 4-6 6-1.

Pick: MinnenUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Vidmanova the favorite; our numbers say Minnen.

Win probability: 51% Minnen · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Darja Vidmanova and Greet Minnen meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Greet Minnen is 5-5 across recent matches. Darja Vidmanova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minnen fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Jul 15, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.