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Newport Predictions & Picks — July 9, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 9, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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8 matches are on Thursday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Stefan Kozlov against Yibing Wu in the round of 32. Our calls: Kozlov over Wu, Lajal over Fearnley, Collins over Volynets, Gea over Schoolkate, Broady over Ilagan, Michelsen over Jung, Walton over Tomic, Mannarino over Galarneau. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Walton over Tomic — the ratings disagree with us there.

Stefan Kozlov vs. Yibing Wu

Stefan Kozlov and Yibing Wu meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Thursday. Stefan Kozlov has won 3 of the last 10. Yibing Wu has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Kozlov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kozlov is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Kozlov

Win probability: 58% Kozlov · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets

Jacob Fearnley vs. Mark Lajal

Thursday's Newport round of 32 pits Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal on grass. Mark Lajal is 7-3 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Fearnley's 70.3%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lajal is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Lajal

Win probability: 56% Lajal · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Danielle Collins vs. Katie Volynets

Danielle Collins and Katie Volynets meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Danielle Collins limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Katie Volynets is 6-4 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Danielle Collins, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Katie Volynets.

Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 57% on first-serve points in Collins's favor. Collins comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Collins fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Collins

Win probability: 60% Collins · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Arthur Gea vs. Tristan Schoolkate

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Gea goes up against Tristan Schoolkate in the Newport round of 16. Arthur Gea is 3-7 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate has won 6 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Gea comes in off a compressed schedule; Schoolkate comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gea is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 50% Gea · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets

Andre Ilagan vs. Liam Broady

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Andre Ilagan against Liam Broady on grass. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Andre Ilagan comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Liam Broady leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Ilagan comes in off a compressed schedule; Broady comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Broady fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: BroadyUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Ilagan; our numbers say Broady.

Win probability: 53% Broady · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)

Alex Michelsen vs. Jason Jung

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Alex Michelsen against Jason Jung on grass. Alex Michelsen comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jason Jung comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Michelsen has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Jung's 65%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule; Jung comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Michelsen is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Michelsen

Win probability: 55% Michelsen · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

Adam Walton vs. Bernard Tomic

Thursday's Newport round of 16 pits Adam Walton against Bernard Tomic on grass. Adam Walton is 7-3 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: WaltonUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Tomic; our numbers say Walton.

Win probability: 54% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)

Adrian Mannarino vs. Alexis Galarneau

Adrian Mannarino and Alexis Galarneau meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Thursday. Adrian Mannarino has won 5 of the last 10. Alexis Galarneau has won 5 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Adrian Mannarino simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Mannarino comes in off a compressed schedule; Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Mannarino gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Mannarino

Win probability: 56% Mannarino · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

Updated Jul 8, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.