2 matches are on Friday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Paula Badosa against Yulia Putintseva in the semifinal. Our calls: Putintseva over Badosa, Waltert over Quevedo. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Putintseva over Badosa — the market disagrees with us there.
Kaitlin Quevedo and Simona Waltert meet in the semifinal at Bastad on Friday. Simona Waltert has won 3 of the last 10. Kaitlin Quevedo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Simona Waltert is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Waltert around 51%. Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule; Waltert comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Waltert gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Waltert
Win probability: 51% Waltert · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 44% chance of a full three sets
Friday's Bastad semifinal pits Paula Badosa against Yulia Putintseva on clay. Yulia Putintseva is 6-4 across recent matches. Paula Badosa is 4-6 across recent matches.
Paula Badosa leads the head-to-head 4-3, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Badosa — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule; Putintseva comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Putintseva gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: PutintsevaUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Badosa the favorite; our numbers say Putintseva.
Win probability: 53% Putintseva · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)