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Granby Predictions & Picks — July 18, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 18, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Saturday's card at Granby, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Murphy Cassone in the semifinal. Our calls: Gea over Cassone, Holmgren over Vukic.

The boldest call on the card: Holmgren over Vukic — the market disagrees with us there.

Arthur Gea vs. Murphy Cassone

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 67% on Arthur Gea, who won 6-3 6-3.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 67% Gea · Most likely score: 2-0 (40%)

Saturday's Granby semifinal pits Arthur Gea against Murphy Cassone on hard. Arthur Gea has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Murphy Cassone brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 4-6 across the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Arthur Gea simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Gea comes in off a compressed schedule; Cassone comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Gea — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Aleksandar Vukic vs. August Holmgren

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had August Holmgren at 60%, but Aleksandar Vukic won 6-4 3-6 6-3.

Pick: HolmgrenUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Vukic the favorite; our numbers say Holmgren.

Win probability: 60% Holmgren · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against August Holmgren in the Granby semifinal. August Holmgren brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Aleksandar Vukic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Holmgren's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 73.1% for Vukic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Vukic arrives with very little recovery time; Holmgren comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Holmgren gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 18, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.