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Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 25, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 25, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Saturday's card at Estoril, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Luciano Darderi in the semifinal. Our calls: Blockx over Darderi, Assche over Gaston. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Blockx over Darderi — the market disagrees with us there.

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Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Van Assche

Saturday's Estoril semifinal pits Hugo Gaston against Luca Van Assche on clay. Luca Van Assche is 8-2 across recent matches. Hugo Gaston is 5-5 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Luca Van Assche, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Hugo Gaston. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Assche — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Assche should have enough here, though Gaston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: Assche

Win probability: 61% Assche · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Luca Van Assche at 61% before the match, and Luca Van Assche won 6-4 7-5.

Alexander Blockx vs. Luciano Darderi

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexander Blockx goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Estoril semifinal. Alexander Blockx comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Blockx's 76.2% behind the first serve (against 70.9% for Darderi) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Blockx gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: BlockxUpset call

Upset call — the market favors Darderi; our numbers say Blockx.

Win probability: 56% Blockx · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alexander Blockx at 56% before the match, and Alexander Blockx won 5-7 7-6 7-6.

Updated Jul 24, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.