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Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 25, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 25, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Saturday's card at Estoril, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Luciano Darderi in the semifinal. Our calls: Blockx over Darderi, Assche over Gaston.

The boldest call on the card: Blockx over Darderi — the market disagrees with us there.

Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Van Assche

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Luca Van Assche at 61% before the match, and Luca Van Assche won 6-4 7-5.

Pick: Assche

Win probability: 61% Assche · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)

Saturday's Estoril semifinal pits Hugo Gaston against Luca Van Assche on clay. Luca Van Assche is 8-2 across recent matches. Hugo Gaston is 5-5 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Luca Van Assche, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Hugo Gaston. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Assche — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Assche should have enough here, though Gaston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Alexander Blockx vs. Luciano Darderi

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alexander Blockx at 56% before the match, and Alexander Blockx won 5-7 7-6 7-6.

Pick: BlockxUpset call

Upset call: the market favors Darderi; our numbers say Blockx.

Win probability: 56% Blockx · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexander Blockx goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Estoril semifinal. Alexander Blockx comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Blockx's 76.2% behind the first serve (against 70.9% for Darderi) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Blockx gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 24, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.