4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the round of 32. Our calls: Minaur over Tsitsipas, Michelsen over Mannarino, Musetti over Vukic, Fritz over Majchrzak.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 61% Musetti · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Washington round of 16. Lorenzo Musetti is 6-4 across recent matches. Aleksandar Vukic is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 61%. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 52% Minaur · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Washington round of 32. Alex De Minaur is 7-3 across recent matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 12-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 9-1 Tsitsipas — worth more than the overall number this week.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minaur fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 69% Fritz · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Kamil Majchrzak and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Kamil Majchrzak is 7-3 across recent matches.
Fritz's 74.6% behind the first serve (against 70.4% for Majchrzak) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fritz should have enough here, though Majchrzak has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 63% Michelsen · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Adrian Mannarino and Alex Michelsen meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alex Michelsen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Michelsen — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.