4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Leylah Fernandez in the round of 16. Our calls: Fernandez over Eala, Osaka over Krueger, Cocciaretto over Navarro, Potapova over Williams. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Cocciaretto over Navarro — the market disagrees with us there.
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Ashlyn Krueger and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Ashlyn Krueger comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Osaka's favor. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 67% Osaka · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elisabetta Cocciaretto goes up against Emma Navarro in the Washington round of 16. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 4-6 across recent matches. Emma Navarro has won 7 of the last 10.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cocciaretto is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: CocciarettoUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Navarro; our numbers say Cocciaretto.
Win probability: 55% Cocciaretto · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Washington round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala is 6-4 across recent matches.
Fernandez's 64.8% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fernandez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 52% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Venus Williams in the Washington round of 32. Anastasia Potapova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Venus Williams is searching for form, having lost 10 in a row (0 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Anastasia Potapova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Potapova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Potapova
Win probability: 55% Potapova · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)