4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Leylah Fernandez in the round of 16. Our calls: Fernandez over Eala, Cocciaretto over Navarro, Osaka over Krueger, Potapova over Williams.
The boldest call on the card: Cocciaretto over Navarro — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 67% Osaka · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Ashlyn Krueger and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Ashlyn Krueger comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Osaka's favor. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: CocciarettoUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Navarro; our numbers say Cocciaretto.
Win probability: 55% Cocciaretto · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elisabetta Cocciaretto goes up against Emma Navarro in the Washington round of 16. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 4-6 across recent matches. Emma Navarro has won 7 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cocciaretto is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 52% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Washington round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala is 6-4 across recent matches.
Fernandez's 64.8% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fernandez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Potapova
Win probability: 55% Potapova · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Venus Williams in the Washington round of 32. Anastasia Potapova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Venus Williams is searching for form, having lost 10 in a row (0 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Anastasia Potapova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Potapova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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