4 matches are on Thursday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andrea Pellegrino against Thiago Monteiro in the round of 16. Our calls: Pellegrino over Monteiro, Maestrelli over Varillas, Gaubas over Olivieri, Virtanen over Skatov.
Pick: Virtanen
Win probability: 69% Virtanen · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Otto Virtanen goes up against Timofey Skatov in the San Marino round of 16. Otto Virtanen is 7-3 across recent matches. Timofey Skatov has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Virtanen has been winning 75.1% of first-serve points to Skatov's 66.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Virtanen should have enough here, though Skatov has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gaubas
Win probability: 59% Gaubas · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Genaro Alberto Olivieri and Vilius Gaubas meet in the round of 16 at San Marino on Thursday. Vilius Gaubas comes in at 2 wins from the last ten. Genaro Alberto Olivieri has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Gaubas has been winning 64.6% of first-serve points to Olivieri's 60.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gaubas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Maestrelli
Win probability: 55% Maestrelli · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Francesco Maestrelli and Juan Pablo Varillas meet in the round of 16 at San Marino on Thursday. Francesco Maestrelli has won 1 of the last 10. Juan Pablo Varillas has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 68.3% on first-serve points in Maestrelli's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maestrelli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Pellegrino
Win probability: 50% Pellegrino · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Andrea Pellegrino and Thiago Monteiro meet in the round of 16 at San Marino on Thursday. Andrea Pellegrino has won 6 of the last 10. Thiago Monteiro has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Pellegrino gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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