3 matches are on Friday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Brandon Nakashima in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Minaur over Nakashima, Musetti over Jodar, Fritz over Michelsen.
The boldest call on the card: Musetti over Jodar — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 60% Fritz · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Washington quarterfinal. Taylor Fritz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 69.7% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Little separates them; Fritz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: MusettiUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Jodar; our numbers say Musetti.
Win probability: 53% Musetti · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Lorenzo Musetti against Rafael Jodar on hard. Lorenzo Musetti has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Musetti gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 52% Minaur · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Brandon Nakashima in the Washington quarterfinal. Alex De Minaur has won 7 of the last 10. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.
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