3 matches are on Friday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Brandon Nakashima in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Minaur over Nakashima, Musetti over Jodar, Fritz over Michelsen. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Musetti over Jodar — the market disagrees with us there.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Washington quarterfinal. Taylor Fritz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 69.7% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Little separates them; Fritz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 60% Fritz · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Lorenzo Musetti against Rafael Jodar on hard. Lorenzo Musetti has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Musetti gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: MusettiUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Jodar; our numbers say Musetti.
Win probability: 53% Musetti · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Brandon Nakashima in the Washington quarterfinal. Alex De Minaur has won 7 of the last 10. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches.
Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Minaur around 52%. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 52% Minaur · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)