5 matches are on Friday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Svitolina over Eala, Pegula over Kalinskaya, Shnaider over Samsonova, Osaka over Cocciaretto, Svitolina over Kudermetova.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 72% Svitolina · Sets: 2 (72%) · most likely score 2-0 (54%)
Elina Svitolina and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Friday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Polina Kudermetova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kudermetova comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Svitolina.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 63% Osaka · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Naomi Osaka meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Naomi Osaka has won 8 of the last 10. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 5-5 across recent matches.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 61.1% for Cocciaretto) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Osaka.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 69% Pegula · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Anna Kalinskaya and Jessica Pegula meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Anna Kalinskaya is 7-3 across recent matches.
Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 53% Shnaider · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Diana Shnaider is 6-4 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shnaider is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 62% Svitolina · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Elina Svitolina in the Washington quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Svitolina's favor. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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