5 matches are on Friday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Svitolina over Eala, Pegula over Kalinskaya, Shnaider over Samsonova, Osaka over Cocciaretto, Svitolina over Kudermetova. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
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Elina Svitolina and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Friday. Elina Svitolina is 7-3 across recent matches. Polina Kudermetova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kudermetova comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Svitolina.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 72% Svitolina · Sets: 2 (72%) · most likely score 2-0 (54%)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Naomi Osaka meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Naomi Osaka has won 8 of the last 10. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 5-5 across recent matches.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 61.1% for Cocciaretto) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Osaka.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 63% Osaka · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Anna Kalinskaya and Jessica Pegula meet in the quarterfinal at Washington on Friday. Jessica Pegula comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Anna Kalinskaya is 7-3 across recent matches.
Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 69% Pegula · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Diana Shnaider is 6-4 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shnaider is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 53% Shnaider · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Elina Svitolina in the Washington quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Svitolina's favor. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 62% Svitolina · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)