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Toronto Predictions & Picks — August 5, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · August 5, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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17 matches are on Wednesday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Amanda Anisimova against Lanlana Tararudee in the round of 64. Our calls: Anisimova over Tararudee, Andreeva over Pliskova, Krejcikova over Samsonova, Pegula over Frech, Townsend over Bouzkova, Rybakina over Kasatkina, and 11 more.

The boldest call on the card: Townsend over Bouzkova — the market disagrees with us there.

Amanda Anisimova vs. Lanlana Tararudee

Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Amanda Anisimova. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Anisimova

Win probability: 63% Anisimova · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

Amanda Anisimova and Lanlana Tararudee meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Wednesday. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Lanlana Tararudee is 7-3 across recent matches.

Amanda Anisimova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Anisimova around 63%. The edge belongs to Anisimova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Daria Kasatkina vs. Elena Rybakina

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 90% before the match, and Elena Rybakina won 6-3 5-7 6-4.

Pick: Rybakina

Win probability: 90% Rybakina · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (65%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Daria Kasatkina against Elena Rybakina on hard. Elena Rybakina is 6-4 across recent matches. Daria Kasatkina limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 59% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Belinda Bencic vs. Sloane Stephens

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Belinda Bencic at 85% before the match, and Belinda Bencic won 6-3 6-1.

Pick: Bencic

Win probability: 85% Bencic · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (62%)

Belinda Bencic and Sloane Stephens meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Wednesday. Belinda Bencic is 7-3 across recent matches. Sloane Stephens has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Bencic has been winning 66.4% of first-serve points to Stephens's 60.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Stephens needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Jessica Pegula vs. Magdalena Frech

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jessica Pegula at 78% before the match, and Jessica Pegula won 3-6 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Pegula

Win probability: 78% Pegula · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)

Jessica Pegula and Magdalena Frech meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Wednesday. Jessica Pegula is 7-3 across recent matches. Magdalena Frech has won 4 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Pegula plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Caty Mcnally vs. Linda Noskova

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Linda Noskova at 75%, but Caty Mcnally won 7-6 6-1.

Pick: Noskova

Win probability: 75% Noskova · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (52%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Caty Mcnally against Linda Noskova on hard. Linda Noskova is rolling — 7 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Caty Mcnally is 6-4 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 69.3% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Noskova's favor. Mcnally needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Maya Joint vs. Sorana Cirstea

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Sorana Cirstea at 74% lost to Maya Joint (6-4 6-4).

Pick: Cirstea

Win probability: 74% Cirstea · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (52%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Maya Joint goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the Toronto round of 64. Sorana Cirstea comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Maya Joint is 3-7 across recent matches.

Sorana Cirstea is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cirstea around 74%. Joint needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Naomi Osaka vs. Panna Udvardy

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 74% on Naomi Osaka, who won 6-2 6-4.

Pick: Osaka

Win probability: 74% Osaka · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (53%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Naomi Osaka goes up against Panna Udvardy in the Toronto round of 64. Naomi Osaka has won 8 of the last 10. Panna Udvardy comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Udvardy's 62.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Osaka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Coco Gauff vs. Kayla Day

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Coco Gauff at 67% before the match, and Coco Gauff won 6-2 7-5.

Pick: Gauff

Win probability: 67% Gauff · Sets: 2 (74%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Coco Gauff against Kayla Day on hard. Coco Gauff is 7-3 across recent matches. Kayla Day comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Gauff — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Leylah Fernandez vs. Renata Zarazua

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Leylah Fernandez was our 66% pick, and won 6-2 6-2.

Pick: Fernandez

Win probability: 66% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Leylah Fernandez against Renata Zarazua on hard. Leylah Fernandez is 4-6 across recent matches. Renata Zarazua has dropped 6 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Fernandez has been winning 64.8% of first-serve points to Zarazua's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fernandez.

Anna Bondar vs. Elise Mertens

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elise Mertens at 66% before the match, and Elise Mertens won 3-6 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Mertens

Win probability: 66% Mertens · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)

Anna Bondar and Elise Mertens meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Wednesday. Elise Mertens is 6-4 across recent matches. Anna Bondar is 6-4 across recent matches.

Elise Mertens is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mertens around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mertens.

Karolina Pliskova vs. Mirra Andreeva

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 65% on Mirra Andreeva, who won 6-0 6-2.

Pick: Andreeva

Win probability: 65% Andreeva · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Karolina Pliskova against Mirra Andreeva on hard. Mirra Andreeva is 8-2 across recent matches. Karolina Pliskova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.

Marie Bouzkova vs. Taylor Townsend

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Taylor Townsend was our 64% pick, and won 7-6 7-5.

Pick: TownsendUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Bouzkova the favorite; our numbers say Townsend.

Win probability: 64% Townsend · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Marie Bouzkova against Taylor Townsend on hard. Taylor Townsend limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.

Taylor Townsend simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Townsend should have enough here, though Bouzkova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Maria Sakkari vs. Zeynep Sonmez

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Maria Sakkari at 62% before the match, and Maria Sakkari won 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Sakkari

Win probability: 62% Sakkari · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Maria Sakkari against Zeynep Sonmez on hard. Maria Sakkari comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Sakkari's favor. The edge belongs to Sakkari — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Alina Korneeva vs. Emma Navarro

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Emma Navarro at 61% lost to Alina Korneeva (6-2 6-2).

Pick: Navarro

Win probability: 61% Navarro · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alina Korneeva goes up against Emma Navarro in the Toronto round of 64. Emma Navarro is 6-4 across recent matches. Alina Korneeva limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Navarro.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Liudmila Samsonova

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Barbora Krejcikova at 59%, but Liudmila Samsonova won 6-1 7-5.

Pick: Krejcikova

Win probability: 59% Krejcikova · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Barbora Krejcikova goes up against Liudmila Samsonova in the Toronto round of 64. Barbora Krejcikova has won 7 of the last 10. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Krejcikova gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Iva Jovic vs. Magda Linette

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Iva Jovic, who won 6-3 7-5.

Pick: Jovic

Win probability: 57% Jovic · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)

Wednesday's Toronto round of 64 pits Iva Jovic against Magda Linette on hard. Iva Jovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Magda Linette has won 6 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Jovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Clara Tauson vs. Nikola Bartunkova

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Clara Tauson; Nikola Bartunkova won 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Tauson

Win probability: 58% Tauson · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)

Clara Tauson and Nikola Bartunkova meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Wednesday. Clara Tauson limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Nikola Bartunkova has won 5 of the last 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Tauson gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.