4 matches are on Thursday's card at Hagen, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jerome Kym against Max Houkes in the round of 16. Our calls: Kym over Houkes, Moller over Brancaccio, Taberner over Topo, Dodig over Giustino.
The boldest call on the card: Taberner over Topo — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 67% Dodig · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lorenzo Giustino goes up against Matej Dodig in the Hagen round of 16. Matej Dodig is 6-4 across recent matches. Lorenzo Giustino has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Dodig — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kym
Win probability: 59% Kym · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jerome Kym goes up against Max Houkes in the Hagen round of 16. Jerome Kym comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Max Houkes comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Kym has been winning 74.8% of first-serve points to Houkes's 68.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kym fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: TabernerUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Topo the favorite; our numbers say Taberner.
Win probability: 63% Taberner · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Thursday's Hagen round of 16 pits Carlos Taberner against Marko Topo on clay. Carlos Taberner is 4-6 across recent matches. Marko Topo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Taberner should have enough here, though Topo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Moller
Win probability: 58% Moller · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Elmer Moller goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Hagen round of 16. Elmer Moller is 7-3 across recent matches. Raul Brancaccio is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Moller comes in off a compressed schedule; Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Moller is exactly that — a lean.
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