Toronto & Montreal predictions, August 6, 2026: Musetti vs. Jodar, Blockx vs. Lehecka

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lorenzo Musetti goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Montreal round of 32. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.

Alexander Blockx and Jiri Lehecka meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Jiri Lehecka is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexander Blockx has won 6 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lehecka fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Madison Keys goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Toronto round of 32. Marta Kostyuk comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Madison Keys has won 8 of the last 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kostyuk fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alex De Minaur and Cameron Norrie meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Alex De Minaur comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Cameron Norrie comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Norrie comes in off a compressed schedule. Minaur should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's Toronto round of 32 pits Anna Kalinskaya against Diana Shnaider on hard. Anna Kalinskaya comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Diana Shnaider is 5-5 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kalinskaya fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Gael Monfils goes up against Learner Tien in the Montreal round of 64. Learner Tien is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Gael Monfils is 4-6 across recent matches.

Learner Tien simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tien fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Montreal round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Mariano Navone on hard. Arthur Fils has won 6 of the last 10. Mariano Navone has won 5 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Fils has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Fils comes in off a compressed schedule; Navone comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Nuno Borges goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Montreal round of 32. Yannick Hanfmann comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hanfmann is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Titouan Droguet in the Montreal round of 32. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Titouan Droguet comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Droguet comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Nakashima — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Amanda Anisimova goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Toronto round of 32. Amanda Anisimova has won 7 of the last 10. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Amanda Anisimova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anisimova should have enough here, though Bartunkova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ekaterina Alexandrova goes up against Talia Gibson in the Toronto round of 32. Ekaterina Alexandrova is 5-5 across recent matches. Talia Gibson is 3-7 across recent matches.

Hold strength tells the story — 66.8% versus 63.6% on first-serve points in Alexandrova's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Alexandrova fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Toronto round of 32 pits Iga Swiatek against Viktorija Golubic on hard. Iga Swiatek comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Viktorija Golubic has won 7 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 64.3% versus 58% on first-serve points in Swiatek's favor. Golubic needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Alexandra Eala and Alycia Parks meet in the round of 64 at Toronto on Thursday. Alexandra Eala brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Alycia Parks comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Eala should have enough here, though Parks has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Aryna Sabalenka and Shuai Zhang meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Thursday. Aryna Sabalenka is 7-3 across recent matches. Shuai Zhang comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Sabalenka has been winning 67.2% of first-serve points to Zhang's 59.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Juncheng Shang and Luciano Darderi meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Juncheng Shang comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Darderi fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Jessica Pegula and Kamilla Rakhimova meet in the round of 32 at Toronto on Thursday. Jessica Pegula has won 7 of the last 10. Kamilla Rakhimova has won 4 of the last 10.

Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 86%. Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. If Pegula plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.