8 matches are on Thursday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lorenzo Musetti against Rafael Jodar in the round of 32. Our calls: Jodar over Musetti, Lehecka over Blockx, Minaur over Norrie, Tien over Monfils, Fils over Navone, Hanfmann over Borges, and 2 more.
The boldest call on the card: Hanfmann over Borges — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Tien
Win probability: 58% Tien · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Gael Monfils goes up against Learner Tien in the Montreal round of 64. Learner Tien is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Gael Monfils is 4-6 across recent matches.
Learner Tien simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tien fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 70% Fils · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
Thursday's Montreal round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Mariano Navone on hard. Arthur Fils has won 6 of the last 10. Mariano Navone has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Fils has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Fils comes in off a compressed schedule; Navone comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 62% Minaur · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Alex De Minaur and Cameron Norrie meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Alex De Minaur comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Cameron Norrie comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Norrie comes in off a compressed schedule. Minaur should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: HanfmannUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Borges the favorite; our numbers say Hanfmann.
Win probability: 56% Hanfmann · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Nuno Borges goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Montreal round of 32. Yannick Hanfmann comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hanfmann is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 52% Lehecka · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Alexander Blockx and Jiri Lehecka meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Jiri Lehecka is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexander Blockx has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lehecka fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 51% Darderi · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Juncheng Shang and Luciano Darderi meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Thursday. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Juncheng Shang comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Darderi fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 51% Jodar · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lorenzo Musetti goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Montreal round of 32. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 62% Nakashima · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Titouan Droguet in the Montreal round of 32. Brandon Nakashima has won 7 of the last 10. Titouan Droguet comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Droguet comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Nakashima — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.