4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Fils against Rafael Jodar in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Fils over Jodar, Shelton over Mensik, Tien over Aguilar, Nakashima over Darderi.
The boldest call on the card: Fils over Jodar — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Tien
Win probability: 60% Tien · Market: -179 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Montreal quarterfinal pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Learner Tien on hard. Learner Tien brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Daniel Merida Aguilar is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Tien's 68% behind the first serve (against 63.9% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Tien — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 55% Shelton · Market: -121 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik meet in the quarterfinal at Montreal on Tuesday. Ben Shelton has won 7 of the last 10. Jakub Mensik has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shelton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: FilsUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Jodar the favorite; our numbers say Fils.
Win probability: 54% Fils · Market: +125 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Rafael Jodar in the Montreal quarterfinal. Arthur Fils is 7-3 across recent matches. Rafael Jodar has won 8 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Arthur Fils, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Rafael Jodar.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 69.4% on first-serve points in Fils's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fils fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 60% Nakashima · Market: -205 · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Tuesday's Montreal quarterfinal pits Brandon Nakashima against Luciano Darderi on hard. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 70.3% on first-serve points in Nakashima's favor. The edge belongs to Nakashima — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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