2 matches are on Tuesday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Belinda Bencic against Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Gauff over Bencic, Svitolina over Alexandrova.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 66% Svitolina · Market: -223 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Elina Svitolina meet in the quarterfinal at Toronto on Tuesday. Elina Svitolina brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Ekaterina Alexandrova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Elina Svitolina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Svitolina around 66%. Svitolina should have enough here, though Alexandrova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 52% Gauff · Market: -158 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Belinda Bencic and Coco Gauff meet in the quarterfinal at Toronto on Tuesday. Coco Gauff is rolling — 3 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Belinda Bencic comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Coco Gauff, 5-2 across their 7 meetings with Belinda Bencic. On hard specifically it reads 4-2 Gauff — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gauff fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.