9 matches are on Monday's card at Winston-Salem, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Benjamin Bonzi against Kamil Majchrzak in the round of 64. Our calls: Bonzi over Majchrzak, Giron over Royer, Safiullin over Fucsovics, Hijikata over Blanch.
The boldest call on the card: Bonzi over Majchrzak — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Hijikata
Win probability: 66% Hijikata · Market: -192 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Darwin Blanch goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Rinky Hijikata comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Darwin Blanch limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Rinky Hijikata is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Hijikata around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hijikata.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Adam Walton against Jesper De Jong on hard. Adam Walton has won 5 of the last 10. Jesper De Jong has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Vit Kopriva on hard. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10. Vit Kopriva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 58% Safiullin · Market: -168 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Marton Fucsovics and Roman Safiullin meet in the round of 64 at Winston-Salem on Monday. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Marton Fucsovics has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Giron
Win probability: 53% Giron · Market: -102 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Marcos Giron goes up against Valentin Royer in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Marcos Giron limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Valentin Royer brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Giron's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 26.1% for Royer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Giron fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: BonziUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Majchrzak; our numbers say Bonzi.
Win probability: 50% Bonzi · Market: +185 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-0 (25%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Kamil Majchrzak on hard. Benjamin Bonzi has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Bonzi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Hugo Grenier against Roman Safiullin on hard. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Hugo Grenier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Abedallah Shelbayh goes up against Martin Damm in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Martin Damm is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Abedallah Shelbayh comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jenson Brooksby goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Winston-Salem round of 32. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches. Jenson Brooksby is 6-4 across recent matches.
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