9 matches are on Monday's card at Winston-Salem, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Benjamin Bonzi against Kamil Majchrzak in the round of 64. Our calls: Bonzi over Majchrzak, Tsitsipas over Brooksby, Safiullin over Fucsovics, Giron over Royer, Sonego over Kopriva, Walton over Jong, and 3 more.
The boldest call on the card: Bonzi over Majchrzak — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Hijikata
Win probability: 66% Hijikata · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Darwin Blanch goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Rinky Hijikata comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Darwin Blanch limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Rinky Hijikata is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Hijikata around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hijikata.
Pick: Walton
Win probability: 59% Walton · Market: -161 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Adam Walton against Jesper De Jong on hard. Adam Walton has won 5 of the last 10. Jesper De Jong has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 58% Sonego · Market: -133 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Vit Kopriva on hard. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10. Vit Kopriva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Sonego's 71.9% behind the first serve (against 66.5% for Kopriva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 58% Safiullin · Market: -168 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Marton Fucsovics and Roman Safiullin meet in the round of 64 at Winston-Salem on Monday. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Marton Fucsovics has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Giron
Win probability: 53% Giron · Market: -102 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Marcos Giron goes up against Valentin Royer in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Marcos Giron limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Valentin Royer brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Giron's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 26.1% for Royer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Giron fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: BonziUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Majchrzak; our numbers say Bonzi.
Win probability: 50% Bonzi · Market: +181 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (25%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Kamil Majchrzak on hard. Benjamin Bonzi has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bonzi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 68% Safiullin · Market: -415 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Hugo Grenier against Roman Safiullin on hard. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Hugo Grenier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Roman Safiullin simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Safiullin — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Damm
Win probability: 66% Damm · Market: -236 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Abedallah Shelbayh goes up against Martin Damm in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Martin Damm is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Abedallah Shelbayh comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Damm has been winning 77.2% of first-serve points to Shelbayh's 66.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Damm should have enough here, though Shelbayh has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 61% Tsitsipas · Market: -141 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jenson Brooksby goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Winston-Salem round of 32. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches. Jenson Brooksby is 6-4 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Tsitsipas has been winning 74.8% of first-serve points to Brooksby's 66.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Tsitsipas should have enough here, though Brooksby has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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