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Monterrey Predictions & Picks — August 25, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · August 25, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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8 matches are on Tuesday's card at Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diane Parry against Donna Vekic in the round of 32. Our calls: Parry over Vekic, Zhang over Timofeeva, Bondar over Bucsa, Kalinina over Joint, Tjen over Starodubtseva, Joint over Udvardy, and 2 more.

The boldest call on the card: Birrell over Vidmanova — the market disagrees with us there.

Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Clara Tauson at 63% before the match, and Clara Tauson won 3-6 6-3 6-0.

Pick: Tauson

Win probability: 63% Tauson · Market: -255 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)

Clara Tauson and Renata Zarazua meet in the round of 32 at Monterrey on Tuesday. Clara Tauson comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Renata Zarazua has won 3 of the last 10.

Tauson's 67.2% behind the first serve (against 57.1% for Zarazua) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Tauson should have enough here, though Zarazua has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Diane Parry vs Donna Vekic

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Diane Parry, who won 6-7 6-4 6-1.

Pick: ParryUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Vekic the favorite; our numbers say Parry.

Win probability: 51% Parry · Market: +141 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)

Tuesday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Diane Parry against Donna Vekic on hard. Diane Parry has won 5 of the last 10. Donna Vekic is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Diane Parry is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Parry around 51%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Parry fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Maria Timofeeva vs Shuai Zhang

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Shuai Zhang at 61% lost to Maria Timofeeva (6-1 6-3).

Pick: Zhang

Win probability: 61% Zhang · Market: -107 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Maria Timofeeva goes up against Shuai Zhang in the Monterrey round of 32. Shuai Zhang is 4-6 across recent matches. Maria Timofeeva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zhang.

Darja Vidmanova vs Kimberly Birrell

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Kimberly Birrell at 60% lost to Darja Vidmanova (7-6 6-3).

Pick: BirrellUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Vidmanova the favorite; our numbers say Birrell.

Win probability: 60% Birrell · Market: +142 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)

Darja Vidmanova and Kimberly Birrell meet in the round of 32 at Monterrey on Tuesday. Kimberly Birrell is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Darja Vidmanova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Birrell fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Anhelina Kalinina vs Maya Joint

Pick: Kalinina

Win probability: 56% Kalinina · Market: +106 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Anhelina Kalinina goes up against Maya Joint in the Monterrey round of 32. Anhelina Kalinina has won 4 of the last 10. Maya Joint limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kalinina fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Anna Bondar vs Cristina Bucsa

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Anna Bondar; Cristina Bucsa won 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Bondar

Win probability: 53% Bondar · Market: -118 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)

Tuesday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Anna Bondar against Cristina Bucsa on hard. Anna Bondar limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Cristina Bucsa is 2-8 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Bondar has been winning 64.5% of first-serve points to Bucsa's 58.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bondar is exactly that — a lean.

Janice Tjen vs Yuliia Starodubtseva

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Janice Tjen; Yuliia Starodubtseva won 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Tjen

Win probability: 62% Tjen · Market: -129 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)

Janice Tjen and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the round of 16 at Monterrey on Tuesday. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Yuliia Starodubtseva has won 4 of the last 10.

Tjen's 67.4% behind the first serve (against 58.2% for Starodubtseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Tjen comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tjen.

Maya Joint vs Panna Udvardy

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Maya Joint at 55%, but Panna Udvardy won 7-6(5) 6-1.

Pick: Joint

Win probability: 55% Joint · Market: -205 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)

Tuesday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Maya Joint against Panna Udvardy on hard. Maya Joint is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Panna Udvardy is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Maya Joint simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Joint is exactly that — a lean.

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Updated Aug 24, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.