8 matches are on Wednesday's card at Winston-Salem, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Sebastian Baez in the round of 16. Our calls: Cerundolo over Baez, Zandschulp over Darderi, Kecmanovic over Marozsan, Bonzi over Hijikata, Altmaier over Buse, Sonego over Duckworth, and 2 more.
The boldest call on the card: Cerundolo over Baez — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Kecmanovic
Win probability: 51% Kecmanovic · Market: -126 · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 32 pits Fabian Marozsan against Miomir Kecmanovic on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Fabian Marozsan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kecmanovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 57% Sonego · Market: -131 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 32 pits Adrian Mannarino against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10. Adrian Mannarino limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Lorenzo Sonego is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sonego around 57%. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bonzi
Win probability: 56% Bonzi · Market: +105 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Benjamin Bonzi goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem round of 16. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches. Rinky Hijikata has won 5 of the last 10.
Benjamin Bonzi is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bonzi around 56%. Bonzi comes in off a compressed schedule; Hijikata comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bonzi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 52% Zandschulp · Market: -141 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Botic Van De Zandschulp and Luciano Darderi meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Botic Van De Zandschulp comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Botic Van De Zandschulp is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zandschulp around 52%. Zandschulp comes in off a compressed schedule; Darderi comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zandschulp fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 51% Altmaier · Market: +117 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Daniel Altmaier and Ignacio Buse meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Daniel Altmaier has won 5 of the last 10. Ignacio Buse has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Buse comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 62% Tsitsipas · Market: -224 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 16 pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic is 3-7 across recent matches.
Stefanos Tsitsipas simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tsitsipas.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 56% Sonego · Market: -124 · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 16 pits James Duckworth against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Lorenzo Sonego is 5-5 across recent matches. James Duckworth is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Duckworth comes in off a compressed schedule; Sonego comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sonego is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: CerundoloUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Baez the favorite; our numbers say Cerundolo.
Win probability: 52% Cerundolo · Market: +134 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Sebastian Baez meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Cerundolo comes in off a compressed schedule; Baez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cerundolo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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