Winston-Salem & Monterrey predictions, August 26, 2026: Zandschulp vs Darderi, Potapova vs Bartunkova
By The Maiden Desk · August 26, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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13 matches are on Wednesday's card at Winston-Salem and Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Botic Van De Zandschulp against Luciano Darderi in the round of 16. Our calls: Zandschulp over Darderi, Bartunkova over Potapova, Bonzi over Hijikata, Kecmanovic over Marozsan, Li over Timofeeva, Cerundolo over Baez, and 7 more.
The boldest call on the card: Bucsa over Vidmanova — the market disagrees with us there.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Botic Van De Zandschulp, who won 6-1 6-0.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 52% Zandschulp · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Botic Van De Zandschulp and Luciano Darderi meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Botic Van De Zandschulp comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Botic Van De Zandschulp is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zandschulp around 52%. Zandschulp comes in off a compressed schedule; Darderi comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zandschulp fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Win probability: 53% Bartunkova · Market: -179 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey round of 16. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Potapova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Bartunkova's 67.9% behind the first serve (against 63.8% for Potapova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Bartunkova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Benjamin Bonzi was our 56% pick, and won 6-1 6-1.
Pick: Bonzi
Win probability: 56% Bonzi · Market: +105 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Benjamin Bonzi goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem round of 16. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches. Rinky Hijikata has won 5 of the last 10.
Benjamin Bonzi is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bonzi around 56%. Bonzi comes in off a compressed schedule; Hijikata comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bonzi is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Miomir Kecmanovic at 51% lost to Fabian Marozsan (6-3 6-4).
Pick: Kecmanovic
Win probability: 51% Kecmanovic · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 32 pits Fabian Marozsan against Miomir Kecmanovic on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Fabian Marozsan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kecmanovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Ann Li. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 62% Li · Market: -173 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Ann Li goes up against Maria Timofeeva in the Monterrey round of 16. Ann Li is 4-6 across recent matches. Maria Timofeeva is 8-2 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Ann Li, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Maria Timofeeva. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Li — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.2% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Li's favor. Timofeeva comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Juan Manuel Cerundolo. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: CerundoloUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Baez the favorite; our numbers say Cerundolo.
Win probability: 52% Cerundolo · Market: +134 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Sebastian Baez meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Cerundolo comes in off a compressed schedule; Baez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cerundolo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Stefanos Tsitsipas at 62%, but Aleksandar Kovacevic won 6-3 7-6.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 62% Tsitsipas · Market: -224 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 16 pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic is 3-7 across recent matches.
Stefanos Tsitsipas simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tsitsipas.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Lorenzo Sonego at 57% before the match, and Lorenzo Sonego won 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 57% Sonego · Market: -131 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 32 pits Adrian Mannarino against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10. Adrian Mannarino limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 56% on Lorenzo Sonego; James Duckworth won 7-5 6-3.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 56% Sonego · Market: -124 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Winston-Salem round of 16 pits James Duckworth against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Lorenzo Sonego is 5-5 across recent matches. James Duckworth is 6-4 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Duckworth comes in off a compressed schedule; Sonego comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sonego is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Daniel Altmaier at 51%, but Ignacio Buse won 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 51% Altmaier · Market: +117 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
Daniel Altmaier and Ignacio Buse meet in the round of 16 at Winston-Salem on Wednesday. Daniel Altmaier has won 5 of the last 10. Ignacio Buse has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Buse comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Diane Parry at 51% before the match, and Diane Parry won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Parry
Win probability: 51% Parry · Market: -214 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Diane Parry goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Monterrey round of 16. Diane Parry is 5-5 across recent matches. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Parry's 65.9% behind the first serve (against 57.6% for Oliynykova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Parry comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Parry gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elise Mertens at 71% before the match, and Elise Mertens won 6-1 4-6 6-3.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 71% Mertens · Market: -342 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Wednesday's Monterrey round of 16 pits Elise Mertens against Panna Udvardy on hard. Elise Mertens limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Panna Udvardy has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Udvardy comes in off a compressed schedule. Mertens should have enough here, though Udvardy has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Cristina Bucsa; Darja Vidmanova won 6-4 7-5.
Pick: BucsaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Vidmanova the favorite; our numbers say Bucsa.
Win probability: 58% Bucsa · Market: +130 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Monterrey round of 16 pits Cristina Bucsa against Darja Vidmanova on hard. Cristina Bucsa is 2-8 across recent matches. Darja Vidmanova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Cristina Bucsa is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bucsa around 58%. Bucsa comes in off a compressed schedule; Vidmanova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Bucsa gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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