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US Open Predictions & Picks — September 5, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 5, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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8 matches are on Saturday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Madison Keys against Qinwen Zheng in the round of 32. Our calls: Keys over Zheng, Svitolina over Kalinskaya, Osaka over Mertens, Eala over Jovic, Andreeva over Bartunkova, Swiatek over Bouzkova, and 2 more.

Anna Kalinskaya vs. Elina Svitolina

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Elina Svitolina at 61% lost to Anna Kalinskaya (6-3 2-6 6-3).

Pick: Svitolina

Win probability: 61% Svitolina · Market: -236 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Anna Kalinskaya against Elina Svitolina on hard. Elina Svitolina has won 7 of the last 10. Anna Kalinskaya is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

Elina Svitolina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Svitolina around 61%. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Coco Gauff vs. Cristina Bucsa

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Coco Gauff was our 82% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Gauff

Win probability: 82% Gauff · Market: -1184 · Sets: 2 (74%) · most likely score 2-0 (63%)

Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Coco Gauff against Cristina Bucsa on hard. Coco Gauff brings a 7-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Cristina Bucsa comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 65.8% versus 58.8% on first-serve points in Gauff's favor. Bucsa needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Iga Swiatek vs. Marie Bouzkova

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Iga Swiatek at 75% before the match, and Iga Swiatek won 7-6 7-6.

Pick: Swiatek

Win probability: 75% Swiatek · Market: -433 · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (56%)

Saturday's US Open round of 32 pits Iga Swiatek against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Iga Swiatek comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Marie Bouzkova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Swiatek win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Amanda Anisimova vs. Anastasia Potapova

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 72% on Amanda Anisimova; Anastasia Potapova won 6-2 7-5.

Pick: Anisimova

Win probability: 72% Anisimova · Market: -453 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (50%)

Amanda Anisimova and Anastasia Potapova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Saturday. Amanda Anisimova has won 7 of the last 10. Anastasia Potapova is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Potapova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Mirra Andreeva vs. Nikola Bartunkova

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 65% on Mirra Andreeva, who won 6-2 7-6.

Pick: Andreeva

Win probability: 65% Andreeva · Market: -356 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)

Mirra Andreeva and Nikola Bartunkova meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Saturday. Mirra Andreeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Mirra Andreeva simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.

Alexandra Eala vs. Iva Jovic

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 63% on Alexandra Eala; Iva Jovic won 7-5 3-6 7-5.

Pick: Eala

Win probability: 63% Eala · Market: +112 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)

Alexandra Eala and Iva Jovic meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Saturday. Alexandra Eala comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Iva Jovic leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Eala — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Naomi Osaka at 59% before the match, and Naomi Osaka won 6-3 3-6 7-5.

Pick: Osaka

Win probability: 59% Osaka · Market: -260 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 32 at US Open on Saturday. Naomi Osaka is 7-3 across recent matches. Elise Mertens brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Mertens's 63.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Osaka fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Madison Keys vs. Qinwen Zheng

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Madison Keys; Qinwen Zheng won 1-6 7-6 7-5.

Pick: Keys

Win probability: 53% Keys · Market: -149 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Madison Keys goes up against Qinwen Zheng in the US Open round of 32. Madison Keys has won 6 of the last 10. Qinwen Zheng is 4-6 across recent matches.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Keys fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Sep 4, 2026, 1:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.