6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elias Ymer against Pavel Kotov in the round of 32. Our calls: Kotov over Ymer, Ivashka over Hsu, Tomic over Santillan, Biryukov over Yevseyev, Sun over Cui, Zhou over Fomin.
Pick: Tomic
Win probability: 58% Tomic · Market: -245 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Akira Santillan against Bernard Tomic on hard. Bernard Tomic comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Akira Santillan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tomic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Kotov
Win probability: 61% Kotov · Market: +103 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Tuesday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Elias Ymer against Pavel Kotov on hard. Pavel Kotov has won 5 of the last 10. Elias Ymer is 3-7 across recent matches.
Pavel Kotov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kotov around 61%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kotov.
Pick: Sun
Win probability: 52% Sun · Market: -139 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Fajing Sun and Jie Cui meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Tuesday. Fajing Sun comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Jie Cui is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Sun gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zhou
Win probability: 54% Zhou · Market: -210 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Sergey Fomin and Yi Zhou meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Tuesday. Yi Zhou is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Sergey Fomin has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.8% versus 67.4% on first-serve points in Zhou's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zhou fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ivashka
Win probability: 54% Ivashka · Market: -101 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ilya Ivashka goes up against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the Shanghai round of 32. Ilya Ivashka comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Yu Hsiou Hsu limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.6% versus 65.9% on first-serve points in Ivashka's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ivashka is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Biryukov
Win probability: 52% Biryukov · Market: -143 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Denis Yevseyev and Petr Bar Biryukov meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Tuesday. Petr Bar Biryukov is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10). Denis Yevseyev has dropped 7 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.4% versus 63.6% on first-serve points in Biryukov's favor. Little separates them; Biryukov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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