4 matches are on Friday's card at Seville, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Facundo Diaz Acosta against Sebastian Ofner in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Acosta over Ofner, Rocha over Lajovic, Gurri over Olivieri, Munar over Brancaccio.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 57% Acosta · Market: -175 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Facundo Diaz Acosta and Sebastian Ofner meet in the quarterfinal at Seville on Friday. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Ofner comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Facundo Diaz Acosta is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Acosta around 57%. Little separates them; Acosta gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Munar
Win probability: 66% Munar · Market: -1221 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jaume Munar goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Seville quarterfinal. Jaume Munar is 5-5 across recent matches. Raul Brancaccio has won 5 of the last 10.
Jaume Munar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Munar around 66%. Munar should have enough here, though Brancaccio has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 53% Rocha · Market: -106 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Dusan Lajovic goes up against Henrique Rocha in the Seville quarterfinal. Henrique Rocha has won 5 of the last 10. Dusan Lajovic has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Lajovic comes in off a compressed schedule; Rocha comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Rocha gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Gurri
Win probability: 56% Gurri · Market: -135 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Genaro Alberto Olivieri goes up against Max Alcala Gurri in the Seville quarterfinal. Max Alcala Gurri comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Genaro Alberto Olivieri has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Gurri comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Gurri gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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