2 matches are on Friday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexis Galarneau against Pavel Kotov in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Kotov over Galarneau, Ivashka over Zhou.
The boldest call on the card: Kotov over Galarneau — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Ivashka
Win probability: 58% Ivashka · Market: -115 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Ilya Ivashka and Yi Zhou meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Ilya Ivashka is 6-4 across recent matches. Yi Zhou is 5-5 across recent matches.
Ilya Ivashka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Ivashka around 58%. Ivashka comes in off a compressed schedule; Zhou comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ivashka fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: KotovUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Galarneau the favorite; our numbers say Kotov.
Win probability: 65% Kotov · Market: +138 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Alexis Galarneau and Pavel Kotov meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Pavel Kotov is 5-5 across recent matches. Alexis Galarneau has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kotov should have enough here, though Galarneau has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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