7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Szczecin, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Henri Squire against Marco Cecchinato in the round of 32. Our calls: Cecchinato over Squire, Izquierdo over Blanch, Acosta over Galan, Barton over Brancaccio, Sachko over Jianu, Kolar over Gakhov, and 1 more.
Pick: Sachko
Win probability: 59% Sachko · Market: -167 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Szczecin round of 32 pits Filip Cristian Jianu against Vitaliy Sachko on clay. Vitaliy Sachko comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Filip Cristian Jianu limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Sachko's 67.7% behind the first serve (against 64.1% for Jianu) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Sachko gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Barton
Win probability: 55% Barton · Market: -137 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hynek Barton goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Szczecin round of 32. Hynek Barton is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Raul Brancaccio comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Barton's 71% behind the first serve (against 66.5% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Barton gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Kolar
Win probability: 56% Kolar · Market: -242 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Ivan Gakhov and Zdenek Kolar meet in the round of 32 at Szczecin on Tuesday. Zdenek Kolar is 3-7 across recent matches. Ivan Gakhov comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kolar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cecchinato
Win probability: 55% Cecchinato · Market: -162 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Tuesday's Szczecin round of 32 pits Henri Squire against Marco Cecchinato on clay. Marco Cecchinato limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Henri Squire is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Cecchinato gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Izquierdo
Win probability: 51% Izquierdo · Market: -109 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Tuesday's Szczecin round of 32 pits Darwin Blanch against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo on clay. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Darwin Blanch limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Izquierdo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 76% Acosta · Market: -394 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Elahi Galan goes up against Facundo Diaz Acosta in the Szczecin round of 32. Facundo Diaz Acosta brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Daniel Elahi Galan is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. If Acosta plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Moeller
Win probability: 59% Moeller · Market: -112 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Michalski goes up against Marvin Moeller in the Szczecin round of 32. Marvin Moeller is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Daniel Michalski has won 2 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Moeller has been winning 68.2% of first-serve points to Michalski's 64.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Moeller is exactly that — a lean.
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