4 matches are on Thursday's card at Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alina Charaeva against Elina Avanesyan in the round of 16. Our calls: Avanesyan over Charaeva, Lys over Podoroska, Badosa over Ortenzi, Sierra over Lamens.
Pick: Sierra
Win probability: 64% Sierra · Market: -123 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Solana Sierra goes up against Suzan Lamens in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Solana Sierra limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Suzan Lamens limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Sierra — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Lys
Win probability: 62% Lys · Market: -163 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Eva Lys and Nadia Podoroska meet in the round of 16 at Sao Paulo on Thursday. Eva Lys has won 4 of the last 10. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Lys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Avanesyan
Win probability: 54% Avanesyan · Market: -110 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Elina Avanesyan in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Elina Avanesyan is 6-4 across recent matches. Alina Charaeva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Elina Avanesyan simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Avanesyan is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 73% Badosa · Market: -668 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jazmin Ortenzi goes up against Paula Badosa in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Paula Badosa comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Jazmin Ortenzi is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Badosa has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Ortenzi's 58.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Badosa plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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