4 matches are on Thursday's card at St. Tropez, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Edas Butvilas against Harold Mayot in the round of 16. Our calls: Mayot over Butvilas, Harris over Cassone, Jong over Guerrieri, Masur over Martineau.
The boldest call on the card: Mayot over Butvilas — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 53% Harris · Market: -104 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Billy Harris goes up against Murphy Cassone in the St. Tropez round of 16. Billy Harris comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Murphy Cassone comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Cassone comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Harris is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Masur
Win probability: 52% Masur · Market: -107 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Thursday's St. Tropez round of 16 pits Daniel Masur against Matteo Martineau on hard. Daniel Masur has won 6 of the last 10. Matteo Martineau comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Masur fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: MayotUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Butvilas the favorite; our numbers say Mayot.
Win probability: 53% Mayot · Market: +136 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Thursday's St. Tropez round of 16 pits Edas Butvilas against Harold Mayot on hard. Harold Mayot comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Edas Butvilas comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mayot fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jong
Win probability: 56% Jong · Market: -201 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Andrea Guerrieri and Jesper De Jong meet in the round of 16 at St. Tropez on Thursday. Jesper De Jong has won 4 of the last 10. Andrea Guerrieri has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Jong has been winning 72.9% of first-serve points to Guerrieri's 66%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jong fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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