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Tolentino Predictions & Picks — September 24, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 24, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Thursday's card at Tolentino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Nuria Brancaccio against Veronika Erjavec in the round of 16. Our calls: Erjavec over Brancaccio, Gorgodze over Palicova.

The boldest call on the card: Gorgodze over Palicova — the market disagrees with us there.

Barbora Palicova vs Ekaterine Gorgodze

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Ekaterine Gorgodze at 50% before the match, and Ekaterine Gorgodze won 7-5 7-5.

Pick: GorgodzeUpset call

Upset call: the market favors Palicova; our numbers say Gorgodze.

Win probability: 50% Gorgodze · Market: +172 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Barbora Palicova goes up against Ekaterine Gorgodze in the Tolentino round of 16. Ekaterine Gorgodze is 4-6 across recent matches. Barbora Palicova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Ekaterine Gorgodze is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Gorgodze around 50%. Palicova comes in off a compressed schedule; Gorgodze arrives with very little recovery time. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gorgodze fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Nuria Brancaccio vs Veronika Erjavec

Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Nuria Brancaccio. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Erjavec

Win probability: 57% Erjavec · Market: -117 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Nuria Brancaccio goes up against Veronika Erjavec in the Tolentino round of 16. Veronika Erjavec comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Nuria Brancaccio has won 5 of the last 10.

Erjavec's 58.6% behind the first serve (against 55.1% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule; Erjavec comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Erjavec fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Sep 24, 2026, 1:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.