4 matches are on Sunday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hubert Hurkacz against Lloyd Harris in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Hurkacz over Harris, Shapovalov over Mannarino, Brooksby over Basilashvili, Fokina over Muller.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 64% Shapovalov · Market: -227 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Sunday's Chengdu quarterfinal pits Adrian Mannarino against Denis Shapovalov on hard. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Shapovalov has been winning 74.7% of first-serve points to Mannarino's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Shapovalov should have enough here, though Mannarino has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Brooksby
Win probability: 57% Brooksby · Market: -124 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Sunday's Chengdu quarterfinal pits Jenson Brooksby against Nikoloz Basilashvili on hard. Jenson Brooksby comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Brooksby gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 74% Fokina · Market: -254 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Alexandre Muller in the Chengdu quarterfinal. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alexandre Muller comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fokina around 74%. Fokina comes in off a compressed schedule; Muller comes in off a compressed schedule. Muller needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 65% Hurkacz · Market: -161 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Lloyd Harris in the Chengdu quarterfinal. Hubert Hurkacz has won 7 of the last 10. Lloyd Harris comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hubert Hurkacz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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