10 matches are on Sunday's card across 4 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Fabian Marozsan against Kyrian Jacquet in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Jacquet over Marozsan, Hurkacz over Harris, Medvedev over Wong, Rublev over Gaston, Safiullin over Bu, Shapovalov over Mannarino, and 4 more.
September 26, 2026 results: 11-5 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 51% Jacquet · Market: +117 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (25%)
Fabian Marozsan and Kyrian Jacquet meet in the quarterfinal at Hangzhou on Sunday. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Fabian Marozsan has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Kyrian Jacquet is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jacquet around 51%. Little separates them; Jacquet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 65% Hurkacz · Market: -161 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Lloyd Harris in the Chengdu quarterfinal. Hubert Hurkacz has won 7 of the last 10. Lloyd Harris comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hubert Hurkacz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 73% Medvedev · Market: -314 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Coleman Wong goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Hangzhou quarterfinal. Daniil Medvedev has won 5 of the last 10. Coleman Wong has won 4 of the last 10.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Wong comes in off a compressed schedule; Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Medvedev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 64% Rublev · Market: -368 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Hugo Gaston in the Hangzhou quarterfinal. Andrey Rublev has won 6 of the last 10. Hugo Gaston comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 65.9% for Gaston) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rublev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 56% Safiullin · Market: -107 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Roman Safiullin and Y. Bu meet in the quarterfinal at Hangzhou on Sunday. Roman Safiullin comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Y. Bu has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule; Bu arrives with very little recovery time. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 64% Shapovalov · Market: -227 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Sunday's Chengdu quarterfinal pits Adrian Mannarino against Denis Shapovalov on hard. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Shapovalov has been winning 74.7% of first-serve points to Mannarino's 70.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Shapovalov should have enough here, though Mannarino has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 61% Fernandez · Market: -184 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
It all comes down to Sunday at Singapore, where Leylah Fernandez faces Talia Gibson for the trophy. Leylah Fernandez brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Talia Gibson brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
Leylah Fernandez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fernandez around 61%. Fernandez should have enough here, though Gibson has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 55% Joint · Market: -155 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
It all comes down to Sunday at Seoul, where Kimberly Birrell faces Maya Joint for the trophy. Maya Joint comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Birrell comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Joint gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Brooksby
Win probability: 57% Brooksby · Market: -124 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Sunday's Chengdu quarterfinal pits Jenson Brooksby against Nikoloz Basilashvili on hard. Jenson Brooksby comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Brooksby gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 74% Fokina · Market: -254 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Alexandre Muller in the Chengdu quarterfinal. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alexandre Muller comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fokina around 74%. Fokina comes in off a compressed schedule; Muller comes in off a compressed schedule. Muller needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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