4 matches are on Sunday's card at Hangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Fabian Marozsan against Kyrian Jacquet in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Jacquet over Marozsan, Medvedev over Wong, Rublev over Gaston, Safiullin over Bu.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 64% Rublev · Market: -368 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Hugo Gaston in the Hangzhou quarterfinal. Andrey Rublev has won 6 of the last 10. Hugo Gaston comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 65.9% for Gaston) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rublev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 51% Jacquet · Market: +117 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (25%)
Fabian Marozsan and Kyrian Jacquet meet in the quarterfinal at Hangzhou on Sunday. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Fabian Marozsan has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Kyrian Jacquet is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jacquet around 51%. Little separates them; Jacquet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 56% Safiullin · Market: -107 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Roman Safiullin and Y. Bu meet in the quarterfinal at Hangzhou on Sunday. Roman Safiullin comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Y. Bu has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule; Bu arrives with very little recovery time. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 73% Medvedev · Market: -314 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Coleman Wong goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Hangzhou quarterfinal. Daniil Medvedev has won 5 of the last 10. Coleman Wong has won 4 of the last 10.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Wong comes in off a compressed schedule; Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Medvedev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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