2 matches are on Monday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Denis Shapovalov against Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinal. Our calls: Hurkacz over Shapovalov, Fokina over Basilashvili.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 64% Fokina · Market: -207 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Chengdu semifinal. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 8 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 5 of the last 10.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fokina.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 56% Hurkacz · Market: -148 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the semifinal at Chengdu on Monday. Hubert Hurkacz is 8-2 across recent matches. Denis Shapovalov has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Shapovalov comes in off a compressed schedule; Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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