4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Curitiba, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lautaro Midon against Matias Soto in the round of 32. Our calls: Midon over Soto, Heide over Casanova, Juan over Tobon, Silva over Velasco.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 69% Heide · Market: -417 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Gustavo Heide and Hernan Casanova meet in the round of 32 at Curitiba on Tuesday. Gustavo Heide comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Hernan Casanova has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.3% versus 61.4% on first-serve points in Heide's favor. Heide should have enough here, though Casanova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Silva
Win probability: 66% Silva · Market: -300 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva goes up against Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco in the Curitiba round of 32. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is 4-6 across recent matches. Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Silva.
Pick: Midon
Win probability: 57% Midon · Market: -155 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Lautaro Midon goes up against Matias Soto in the Curitiba round of 32. Lautaro Midon is 5-5 across recent matches. Matias Soto is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Lautaro Midon is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Midon around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Midon fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Juan
Win probability: 57% Juan · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Bautista Torres Juan goes up against M. Tobon in the Curitiba round of 32. Bautista Torres Juan is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). M. Tobon is 3-7 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Juan is exactly that — a lean.
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