4 matches are on Friday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Hubert Hurkacz in the round of 16. Our calls: Hurkacz over Gea, Djokovic over Bu, Medvedev over Busta, Khachanov over Molcan.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 79% Djokovic · Market: -289 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Novak Djokovic and Y. Bu meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Friday. Novak Djokovic has won 6 of the last 10. Y. Bu has won 7 of the last 10.
Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Djokovic around 79%. Anything other than a Djokovic win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 69% Medvedev · Market: -330 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Friday's Beijing round of 32 pits Daniil Medvedev against Pablo Carreno Busta on hard. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Pablo Carreno Busta has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Busta's 68.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Medvedev should have enough here, though Busta has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Khachanov
Win probability: 71% Khachanov · Market: -332 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Friday's Beijing round of 16 pits Alex Molcan against Karen Khachanov on hard. Karen Khachanov has won 5 of the last 10. Alex Molcan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Khachanov's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Khachanov.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 56% Hurkacz · Market: -133 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Friday's Beijing round of 16 pits Arthur Gea against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Hubert Hurkacz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Arthur Gea comes in at 9 wins from the last ten.
Hurkacz's 75.9% behind the first serve (against 67.5% for Gea) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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