4 matches are on Friday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Fils against Frances Tiafoe in the round of 16. Our calls: Fils over Tiafoe, Tsitsipas over Vacherot, Darderi over Jacquet, Munar over Faria.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 59% Fils · Market: -223 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Friday's Tokyo round of 16 pits Arthur Fils against Frances Tiafoe on hard. Arthur Fils has won 8 of the last 10. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Tiafoe comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fils is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Munar
Win probability: 54% Munar · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jaime Faria goes up against Jaume Munar in the Tokyo round of 16. Jaume Munar is 6-4 across recent matches. Jaime Faria is 6-4 across recent matches.
Jaume Munar simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Faria comes in off a compressed schedule; Munar comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Munar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 51% Darderi · Market: -136 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Kyrian Jacquet goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Tokyo round of 16. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Jacquet comes in off a compressed schedule; Darderi comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Darderi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 51% Tsitsipas · Market: -157 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Tokyo round of 16. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Valentin Vacherot has won 5 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Tsitsipas comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tsitsipas fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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