2 matches are on Monday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Novak Djokovic in the semifinal. Our calls: Djokovic over Medvedev, Minaur over Hurkacz.
The boldest call on the card: Djokovic over Medvedev — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 54% Minaur · Market: -126 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Beijing semifinal pits Alex De Minaur against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Alex De Minaur brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Hubert Hurkacz has won 8 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Minaur gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: DjokovicUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Medvedev the favorite; our numbers say Djokovic.
Win probability: 58% Djokovic · Market: +138 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Monday's Beijing semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Novak Djokovic on hard. Novak Djokovic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 7 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Djokovic around 58%. Djokovic comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Djokovic is exactly that — a lean.
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