2 matches are on Monday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Valentin Vacherot in the semifinal. Our calls: Lehecka over Vacherot, Alcaraz over Munar.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 83% Alcaraz · Market: -610 · We call it in 2 sets (70%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (61%)
Monday's Tokyo semifinal pits Carlos Alcaraz against Jaume Munar on hard. Carlos Alcaraz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Jaume Munar has won 6 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 58% Lehecka · Market: -166 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Tokyo semifinal. Jiri Lehecka has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Valentin Vacherot comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Jiri Lehecka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Lehecka around 58%. Lehecka comes in off a compressed schedule; Vacherot comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lehecka fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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