3 matches are on Monday's card at Villena, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Luca Nardi against Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the round of 32. Our calls: Ruiz over Nardi, Prizmic over Jones, Echargui over Brancaccio.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 70% Prizmic · Market: -295 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Dino Prizmic goes up against Jack Pinnington Jones in the Villena round of 32. Dino Prizmic has won 6 of the last 10. Jack Pinnington Jones comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Prizmic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Echargui
Win probability: 53% Echargui · Market: -240 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Monday's Villena round of 32 pits Moez Echargui against Raul Brancaccio on clay. Moez Echargui is 5-5 across recent matches. Raul Brancaccio limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Echargui's 69.3% behind the first serve (against 66.3% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Echargui gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Ruiz
Win probability: 57% Ruiz · Market: -168 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Luca Nardi goes up against Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Villena round of 32. Pablo Llamas Ruiz has won 5 of the last 10. Luca Nardi has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Ruiz around 57%. Little separates them; Ruiz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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