4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Iga Swiatek against Iva Jovic in the round of 16. Our calls: Swiatek over Jovic, Gauff over Mertens, Svitolina over Li, Zheng over Charaeva.
Pick: Zheng
Win probability: 70% Zheng · Market: -305 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Alina Charaeva and Qinwen Zheng meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Wednesday. Qinwen Zheng has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Zheng has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Charaeva's 63.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Zheng should have enough here, though Charaeva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 70% Gauff · Market: -323 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Coco Gauff and Elise Mertens meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Wednesday. Coco Gauff comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Elise Mertens comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Coco Gauff is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gauff around 70%. The edge belongs to Gauff — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 66% Svitolina · Market: -281 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Ann Li and Elina Svitolina meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Wednesday. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Ann Li has won 7 of the last 10.
Elina Svitolina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Svitolina should have enough here, though Li has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 66% Swiatek · Market: -184 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iga Swiatek goes up against Iva Jovic in the Beijing round of 16. Iga Swiatek comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Iva Jovic is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule; Jovic comes in off a compressed schedule. Swiatek should have enough here, though Jovic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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