5 matches are on Thursday's card at Braga, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elmer Moller against Zsombor Piros in the round of 16. Our calls: Piros over Moller, Gaubas over Ajdukovic, Neumayer over Wallin, Dodig over Damas, Izquierdo over Pereira.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 76% Dodig · Market: -317 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Thursday's Braga round of 16 pits Matej Dodig against Miguel Damas on clay. Matej Dodig has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Miguel Damas has won 3 of the last 10.
Dodig's 70.4% behind the first serve (against 61.2% for Damas) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Dodig comes in off a compressed schedule; Damas comes in off a compressed schedule. Damas needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Piros
Win probability: 69% Piros · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Elmer Moller and Zsombor Piros meet in the round of 16 at Braga on Thursday. Zsombor Piros comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Elmer Moller is 5-5 across recent matches.
Zsombor Piros is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Piros around 69%. Piros should have enough here, though Moller has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 67% Neumayer · Market: -200 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Lukas Neumayer and Olle Wallin meet in the round of 16 at Braga on Thursday. Lukas Neumayer comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Olle Wallin comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Lukas Neumayer simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule; Wallin comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Neumayer — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Gaubas
Win probability: 58% Gaubas · Market: -205 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Duje Ajdukovic goes up against Vilius Gaubas in the Braga round of 16. Vilius Gaubas is 4-6 across recent matches. Duje Ajdukovic is 4-6 across recent matches.
Vilius Gaubas is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Gaubas around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gaubas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Izquierdo
Win probability: 75% Izquierdo · Market: -245 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Thursday's Braga round of 16 pits Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo against T. Pereira on clay. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo has won 6 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. T. Pereira has won 5 of the last 10.
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Izquierdo around 75%. Pereira comes in off a compressed schedule. If Izquierdo plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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