6 matches are on Thursday's card at Villena, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jack Pinnington Jones against Joel Schwaerzler in the round of 16. Our calls: Schwaerzler over Jones, Rincon over Martinez, Barton over Rehberg, Glinka over Echargui, Dzumhur over Shelbayh, Gojo over Henning.
The boldest call on the card: Barton over Rehberg — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Gojo
Win probability: 74% Gojo · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Thursday's Villena round of 16 pits Borna Gojo against Philip Henning on clay. Borna Gojo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Philip Henning has dropped 5 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Gojo's 75% behind the first serve (against 66.3% for Henning) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Henning comes in off a compressed schedule. Henning needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Schwaerzler
Win probability: 54% Schwaerzler · Market: +115 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Thursday's Villena round of 16 pits Jack Pinnington Jones against Joel Schwaerzler on clay. Joel Schwaerzler is 7-3 across recent matches. Jack Pinnington Jones is 4-6 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Jones comes in off a compressed schedule; Schwaerzler comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Schwaerzler fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Dzumhur
Win probability: 68% Dzumhur · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Thursday's Villena round of 16 pits Abedallah Shelbayh against Damir Dzumhur on clay. Damir Dzumhur has won 6 of the last 10. Abedallah Shelbayh has won 7 of the last 10.
Damir Dzumhur simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Shelbayh comes in off a compressed schedule; Dzumhur comes in off a compressed schedule. Dzumhur should have enough here, though Shelbayh has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Glinka
Win probability: 60% Glinka · Market: -123 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Daniil Glinka goes up against Moez Echargui in the Villena round of 16. Daniil Glinka comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Moez Echargui comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Daniil Glinka is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Glinka around 60%. Glinka comes in off a compressed schedule. Glinka should have enough here, though Echargui has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: BartonUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Rehberg the favorite; our numbers say Barton.
Win probability: 51% Barton · Market: +122 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Hynek Barton and Max Hans Rehberg meet in the round of 16 at Villena on Thursday. Hynek Barton has won 5 of the last 10. Max Hans Rehberg comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Barton has been winning 71% of first-serve points to Rehberg's 67.4%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Barton comes in off a compressed schedule; Rehberg comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Barton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rincon
Win probability: 53% Rincon · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Villena round of 16 pits Daniel Rincon against Pedro Martinez on clay. Daniel Rincon has won 5 of the last 10. Pedro Martinez is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 64.6% on first-serve points in Rincon's favor. Little separates them; Rincon gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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