4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the round of 16. Our calls: Medvedev over Tsitsipas, Aliassime over Ruud, Jodar over Zandschulp, Paul over Bergs.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 65% Paul · Market: -189 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Tommy Paul goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai round of 16. Tommy Paul has won 7 of the last 10. Zizou Bergs brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Tommy Paul is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Paul around 65%. The edge belongs to Paul — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 60% Medvedev · Market: -202 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniil Medvedev goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Shanghai round of 16. Daniil Medvedev brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Stefanos Tsitsipas is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Medvedev should have enough here, though Tsitsipas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 59% Jodar · Market: -173 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Shanghai round of 16 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar is 6-4 across recent matches. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jodar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 55% Aliassime · Market: -134 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Felix Auger Aliassime in the Shanghai round of 16. Felix Auger Aliassime has won 7 of the last 10. Casper Ruud comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.5% versus 70.3% on first-serve points in Aliassime's favor. Little separates them; Aliassime gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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