3 matches are on Thursday's card at Olbia, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesco Maestrelli against Maxim Mrva in the round of 16. Our calls: Maestrelli over Mrva, Fearnley over Kumstat, Dzumhur over Kuzmanov.
Pick: Fearnley
Win probability: 57% Fearnley · Market: -195 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Jacob Fearnley and Jan Kumstat meet in the round of 16 at Olbia on Thursday. Jacob Fearnley has won 7 of the last 10. Jan Kumstat comes in at 9 wins from the last ten.
Jacob Fearnley is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fearnley around 57%. Little separates them; Fearnley gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Dzumhur
Win probability: 54% Dzumhur · Market: -142 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Thursday's Olbia round of 16 pits Damir Dzumhur against Dimitar Kuzmanov on hard. Damir Dzumhur is 5-5 across recent matches. Dimitar Kuzmanov comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Dzumhur comes in off a compressed schedule; Kuzmanov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dzumhur is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Maestrelli
Win probability: 51% Maestrelli · Market: -109 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Francesco Maestrelli and Maxim Mrva meet in the round of 16 at Olbia on Thursday. Francesco Maestrelli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Maxim Mrva is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 63.7% on first-serve points in Maestrelli's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Maestrelli fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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