3 matches are on Friday's card at Santa Cruz 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Franco Roncadelli against Manuel La Serna Juan in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Juan over Roncadelli, Wild over Kicker, Comesana over Olivieri.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 68% Comesana · Market: -393 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Friday's Santa Cruz 2 quarterfinal pits Francisco Comesana against Genaro Alberto Olivieri on clay. Francisco Comesana comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Genaro Alberto Olivieri comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Comesana has been winning 71.6% of first-serve points to Olivieri's 61.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Comesana should have enough here, though Olivieri has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Juan
Win probability: 52% Juan · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Franco Roncadelli goes up against Manuel La Serna Juan in the Santa Cruz 2 quarterfinal. Manuel La Serna Juan is 5-5 across recent matches. Franco Roncadelli has won 5 of the last 10.
Juan's 63.1% behind the first serve (against 58.8% for Roncadelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Roncadelli comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Juan gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Wild
Win probability: 76% Wild · Market: -461 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Friday's Santa Cruz 2 quarterfinal pits Nicolas Kicker against Thiago Seyboth Wild on clay. Thiago Seyboth Wild is 9-1 across recent matches. Nicolas Kicker has won 7 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Wild has been winning 69% of first-serve points to Kicker's 64.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Kicker comes in off a compressed schedule. If Wild plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.