2 matches are on Friday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Medvedev over Paul, Jodar over Ruud.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 55% Medvedev · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Daniil Medvedev brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Tommy Paul has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 69.4% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Medvedev fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 54% Jodar · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Rafael Jodar is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Casper Ruud is 7-3 across recent matches.
Rafael Jodar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jodar around 54%. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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