4 matches are on Friday's card at Wuhan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elina Svitolina against Sonay Kartal in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Svitolina over Kartal, Swiatek over Li, Sakkari over Chwalinska, Shnaider over Ostapenko.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 56% Sakkari · Market: -121 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Maja Chwalinska and Maria Sakkari meet in the quarterfinal at Wuhan on Friday. Maria Sakkari has won 6 of the last 10. Maja Chwalinska has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 58.3% on first-serve points in Sakkari's favor. Chwalinska comes in off a compressed schedule; Sakkari comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sakkari is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 74% Swiatek · Market: -360 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Friday's Wuhan quarterfinal pits Ann Li against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek is 7-3 across recent matches. Ann Li comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Li comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. Li needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 65% Shnaider · Market: -199 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Friday's Wuhan quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Jelena Ostapenko on hard. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Jelena Ostapenko has won 5 of the last 10.
Diana Shnaider simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Shnaider comes in off a compressed schedule; Ostapenko comes in off a compressed schedule. Shnaider should have enough here, though Ostapenko has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 62% Svitolina · Market: -186 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elina Svitolina goes up against Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Sonay Kartal is 7-3 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Svitolina comes in off a compressed schedule; Kartal comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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